Gold signal goes flat (GLD)

July-Aug Rotations: Core Mkt = GLD, Featured Mkt = TBT.

Signals: GLD = Flat 8/15 (TSP= waiting), TBT= Long 8/09 (TSP= 30.73).

Model notes: The gold model previous buy signal was a little early, but the TSP after the drop bailed it out. The models are now going flat. This is not a bad idea. If you don’t quite feel with the market, step back and have another go later. The interest rate model buy has been rewarded by a TBT that has moved up. This model looks to be in sync with the market.

Note: The TSP (theoretical Signal Price) metric is calculated by using the ‘close’ price of the trading day FOLLOWING the signal day (giving you plenty of time to take the signal).

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160815gGold Trading Signals (Core). Gold has featured a lot of back and forth motion during this test period. We are about half way in the trading range (125-130, GLD basis) and this is probably a good place to get out. We may even make a profit (TSP to TSP). Taking a position at one of the two extremes in the range may make a lot more sense. Gold model is flat.
  • CTM160815bInterest Rates (Featured). Our interest rate model has done a little better in playing the range-bound movements. One interesting point, the model refuses to short rates. It senses higher rates are ahead!

 

Premium Research notes:

Observation: Don’t sit around your Monday morning meetings giving each other high-fives with a two-star fund or strategy on the books. Contact me for more info. Click the ‘Ranking’ tab to find out additional info. By the way, in 2016, I am only going to take on 6 clients. CTM can help and our rates are reasonable!

We are now offering asset class ranking (or alternatively sector ranking), using our trading signal technology on a longer timeframe. This is an exciting new product as portfolio construction has one glaring, missing puzzle piece: what asset classes will continue to outperform/advance for next month? Get your independent research here, put my 25+ years of model building experience to work for you!

Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I posted the S&P 500 trading signals postmortem for the recent March-April time period (approx. as it took about a week to generate a signal at the beginning). Plus 134 Points. Great stuff!

Take a minute to check out the Forex tab on our website. I am posting the recent US Dollar May-June signals. No whipsaws and playing the surprise Brexit vote just right. Great stuff!

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in gold (and interest rate) trading.”

Interest rates to bottom! (TBT)

July-Aug Rotations: Core Mkt = GLD, Featured Mkt= TBT

Signals: GLD = Buy 8/4 (TSP= 127.55), TBT= Long 8/09 (TSP= waiting).

Model notes: The gold signal featured a next day jarring drop but the actual trade would have been at the next day’s close (TSP), which means after the one-day drop. So the model signal was actually positive at the close of today! The interest rate model buys today (TSP pending). So far (and I never get tired of saying this) both models are still in sync with their respective markets!

Note: The TSP (theoretical Signal Price) metric is calculated by using the ‘close’ price of the trading day FOLLOWING the signal day (giving you plenty of time to take the signal).

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160809gGold Trading Signals (Core). Gold model issued a buy, the drop proved to be a confidence shaker, but prices bounced above the signal TSP (TSP= 127.55). So all looks good. We expect support at the 127 level. Gold model is positive.
  • CTM160809bInterest Rates (Featured). The rate model buys on today’s weakness (hoping for a good TSP tomorrow). Look for support for the TBT near 30.20. If you take the current signal with the previous signal you get a theme that interest rates are on a gentle up-trend. A gentle up move in rates should not be a drag on stocks.

 

Premium Research notes:

Observation: Don’t sit around your Monday morning meetings giving each other high-fives with a two-star fund or strategy on the books. Contact me for more info. Click the ‘Ranking’ tab to find out additional info. By the way, in 2016, I am only going to take on 6 clients. CTM can help and our rates are reasonable!

We are now offering asset class ranking (or alternatively sector ranking), using our trading signal technology on a longer timeframe. This is an exciting new product as portfolio construction has one glaring, missing puzzle piece: what asset classes will continue to outperform/advance for next month? Get your independent research here, put my 25+ years of model building experience to work for you!

Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I posted the S&P 500 trading signals postmortem for the recent March-April time period (approx. as it took about a week to generate a signal at the beginning). Plus 134 Points. Great stuff!

Take a minute to check out the Forex tab on our website. I am posting the recent US Dollar May-June signals. No whipsaws and playing the surprise Brexit vote just right. Great stuff!

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in gold (and interest rate) trading.”

Finally! (GLD)

July-Aug Rotations: Core Mkt = GLD, Featured Mkt = TBT.

Signals: GLD = Buy 8/4 (TSP= N/A), TBT= Flat 7/19 (TSP= 31.71).

Model notes: Finally a move, the GLD model issued a buy, it is off the lows of late July but that doesn’t mean it can’t be a profitable trade. The model has been stand offish until now. I am relieved for some action. The interest rate model? One good (profitable) trade and some back-and-forth after that We seem ok here.

Note: The TSP (theoretical Signal Price) metric is calculated by using the ‘close’ price of the trading day FOLLOWING the signal day (giving you plenty of time to take the signal).

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160804gGold Trading Signals (Core). Gold model issues a buy today (TSP for tomorrow). The obvious inference is the 131 (GLD basis) is not going to contain the prices further. Gold portfolio to go long at tomorrow’s close.
  • CTM160804bInterest Rates (Featured). The model is flat as of July 19 (exit executed on the following close). Since then it is mainly back-and-forth motion. Flat is the word.

 

Premium Research notes:

Observation: Don’t sit around your Monday morning meetings giving each other high-fives with a two-star fund or strategy on the books. Contact me for more info. Click the ‘Ranking’ tab to find out additional info. By the way, in 2016, I am only going to take on 6 clients. CTM can help and our rates are reasonable!

We are now offering asset class ranking (or alternatively sector ranking), using our trading signal technology on a longer timeframe. This is an exciting new product as portfolio construction has one glaring, missing puzzle piece: what asset classes will continue to outperform/advance for next month? Get your independent research here, put my 25+ years of model building experience to work for you!

Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I posted the S&P 500 trading signals postmortem for the recent March-April time period (approx. as it took about a week to generate a signal at the beginning). Plus 134 Points. Great stuff!

Take a minute to check out the Forex tab on our website. I am posting the recent US Dollar May-June signals. No whipsaws and playing the surprise Brexit vote just right. Great stuff!

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in gold (and interest rate) trading.”