May-June Rotations: Core Mkt = Wheat, Featured Mkt = US Dollar.
Signals: Wheat= Long 6/24 (TSP= 447), USD= Short 6/24 (TSP= 96.70).
Model notes: We are waiving farewell to wheat and the greenback. Our results were good (3 out of 4, 2 out of 2, respectively). By using nonlinear analysis, ConquerTheMummy (CTM) was not fooled by the parade of luminaries (including Obama) predicting a “remain” Brexit vote. Cutting through the misdirection! Look for our next rotations: GLD (gold, core) and TBT (interest rates, featured), in July and August trading signals. Adventures await at the CTM website.
Note: The TSP (theoretical Signal Price) metric is calculated by using the ‘close’ price of the trading day FOLLOWING the signal day.
Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals.
Nonlinear Trading Themes:
- Wheat Trading Signals (Core). Our winning trades percentage was good (3 of 4). I would have liked to have caught the mid-June short a little sooner and the end of month buy a little later, but CTM models had the flow of the market. What is next? If the dollar continues to drop, that should be a plus for grains. Wheat watchers need to watch the deflationary front though. If an eventual wave of deflation goes through, that will be tough for commodities in general. I hope you enjoyed the two-month wheat tour, Look for gold next!
- US Dollar Signals (Featured). CTM models played the Brexit tango well, avoiding getting whipsawed in the pre-vote luminary enhanced swirl, then getting setup for a near perfect post-vote position reversal. The trading chestnut, “listening to politicians can get you killed.” The future for the dollar? The models are still short, bears have the advantage, but they need to be alert that the next major developed county to raise rates is likely to be the USA. The next featured market is going to be the TBT (interest rates) so if you follow this website over the next two months, we will help you see that issue coming, hopefully just before it happens!
Premium Research notes:
Observation: Don’t sit around your Monday morning meetings giving each other high-fives with a two-star fund or strategy on the books. CTM can help and our rates are reasonable!
We are now offering asset class ranking (or alternatively sector ranking), using our nonlinear trading signal technology on a longer timeframe. This is an exciting new product as portfolio construction often has one glaring missing puzzle piece: what asset classes will continue to outperform/advance for next month? Get your independent research here! Contact me for more info. Click the ‘Ranking’ tab to find out more. By the way, in 2016, I am only going to take on 6 clients.
Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I posted the S&P 500 trading signals postmortem for the recent March-April time period (approx. as it took about a week to generate a signal at the beginning). Plus 134 Points. Great stuff!
Take a minute to check out the Forex tab on our website. I am posting the recent US Dollar May-June signals. No whipsaws and playing the surprise Brexit vote just right. Great stuff!
GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in gold (and wheat) trading.”