Tag Archives: Nonlinear Trading Themes

Models Maneuver to get in Sync  (GLD, SPX, VIX and USD)

System Notes: The equity meltdown we are experiencing is a type of ‘black swan’ event . So how did the models do? Gold did the best as the yellow metal model was flat before the event. Equities were caught on the wrong side of the move, destroying a mostly positive (i.e. most of the days were north of the buy signal) August. Oh well. I am removing the VIX chart for the rest of the month as I have added the upcoming USD chart. I will post the signals for VIX for the rest of the month, just not produce a chart to show them.

Featured market rotation: Equities for August, US Dollar for September and Bonds for October. Gold is non-rotational. Starting USD early!

Model Portfolios: Gold = Buy 8/25, S&P 500= Neutral 8/25, VIX=Neutral 8/25, USD = Buy 8/20

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM150825gGold: The yellow metal now goes on a buy. The effect is a counter trend buy against a longer term uptrend. The model gold portfolio signals long today.
  • CTM150825sS&P 500 (August Featured Market): Largecaps have just died since Tuesday. The model goes flat today as the market is now both in a technical downtrend yet at the same time oversold. The combination of western over indebtedness and Chinese deceleration have put stocks in a very precarious situation. Tuesday’s failed rally is also disturbing sign of weakness. The S&P 500 portfolio is now flat.
  • $VIX (S&P volatility) (August Featured Market): Our model was also on the wrong side of the volatility spike. The VIX portfolio is now flat.
  • CTM150825uUS Dollar (Sept Featured Market): The US dollar index buy came amidst the equity meltdown. The model picked up the buy on Aug 20th. Prices moved lower on the following two days but Tuesday’s reversal is still intact. It is not inconceivable buyers will come into the dollar against a backdrop of global fear. US Dollar portfolio is still bullish.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the Bond trading signals. Currently available.
  • We now offer S&P 500 signals (along with the choppy $VIX). This index is a mainstay among financial participants and traders around the world. Sign-up for exclusive signals to give you the edge. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Global Deflation Fears Roil Stocks (and everything else) (GLD, SPX, VIX and USD)

System Notes: The equity meltdown has changed the current trends (at least in the short-term. Equity-related pain has provided one “silver” lining: an opportunity to take our first public currency trade and set up for the featured September market, The USD starts with a buy.

Featured market rotation: Equities for August, US Dollar for September and Bonds for October. Gold is non-rotational. Starting USD early!

Model Portfolios: Gold = Flat 8/17, S&P 500= Buy 7/27, VIX=Sell 7/27, USD = Buy 8/20

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM150820gGold: It is great not to be short. Gold is bounding higher on the equity meltdown. The model gold portfolio is flat today.
  • CTM150820sS&P 500 (August Featured Market): Largecaps gave up the ghost Thursday, pushing the current signal to its first losing close versus the 7/27 signal. I am eager to see how the models judge this. Have we hit a short-term bottom? The S&P 500 portfolio is still bullish.
  • CTM150820v$VIX (S&P volatility) (August Featured Market): Volatility bulls love an equity selloff like this. Is there anything tradable here? Probably not yet. VIX portfolio is still bearish.
  • CTM150820uUS Dollar (Sept Featured Market): I wanted to get this signal going before Sept 1, so that we would enjoy a full September of currency speculation. The stock meltdown has afforded a good opportunity to buy. US Dollar portfolio is now bullish.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the Bond trading signals. Currently available.
  • We now offer S&P 500 signals (along with the choppy $VIX). This index is a mainstay among financial participants and traders around the world. Sign-up for exclusive signals to give you the edge. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Gold Model Goes Flat (GLD)

System Notes: The gold signal goes flat after four days short. This is good from a system standpoint, as it indicates the indicators have the flexibility to get out of a position that is acting dubious (as opposed to hanging on and getting throttled). Equity models are preforming well, current prices are positive versus their recent signals.

Featured market rotation: Equities for August, US Dollar for September and Bonds for October. Gold is non-rotational.

Model Portfolios: Gold = Flat= 8/17 (new signal), S&P 500= Buy 7/27, VIX= Sell 7/27

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM150817gGold: The gold model played the sell-the-breakout card (8/11), but covered today. Technically, if you fade a breakout you want the market to show weakness relatively soon. The model gold portfolio is now flat today.
  • CTM150817sS&P 500 (August Featured Market): Largecaps are now at the top of the past two-week trading range. The Mummy is looking for higher prices. A close above 2120 (SPX basis) would be a good start. The S&P 500 portfolio is still bullish.
  • CTM150817v$VIX (S&P volatility) (August Featured Market): The VIX actually closed up a few cents on a day the S&P 500 rose almost 10 points (not normal). This thing is trading like staggered boxer who has been punched too much. The volatility index will only get true direction when the S&P 500 does. I am looking for lower values. VIX portfolio is still bearish.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the Bond trading signals. Currently available.
  • We now offer S&P 500 signals (along with the choppy $VIX). This index is a mainstay among financial participants and traders around the world. Sign-up for exclusive signals to give you the edge. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

S&P holds, Gold Reverses (SPX, GLD)

System Notes: The spike after the gold model sell was jarring but did allow traders who planned on taking the bearish signal a chance to get short. Equity signals continue to be on the right side of their respective markets. Featured market rotation: Equities for August, US Dollar for September and Bonds for October. Gold is our staple. I will have further comments on the feature rotation next week.

Model Portfolios: Gold = Sell 8/11, S&P 500= Buy 7/27, VIX= Sell 7/27

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM150813gGold: Gold popped after the signal but had a significant downside reversal today. The yellow metal is overbought. In the absence of some type of destructive geo-political event, more selling is expected. The model gold portfolio is short.
  • CTM150813sS&P 500 (August Featured Market): Largecaps managed to push below the near-term support (2065 S&P 500 basis) during intraday trading on 8/12, but rallied up to close positive by the end of day. Today’s trading was directionless. However you cut it, the support level is holding. The S&P 500 portfolio is still bullish.
  • CTM150813v$VIX (S&P volatility) (August Featured Market): Vix ticked lower (despite a mildly negative day for stocks), indicating the volatility index is not sensing a significant sell-off in the wind. VIX portfolio is still bearish.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the Bond trading signals. Currently available.
  • We now offer S&P 500 signals (along with the choppy $VIX). This index is a mainstay among financial participants and traders around the world. Sign-up for exclusive signals to give you the edge. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

China Currency Surprise, Gold sell! (GLD)

System Notes: We get the first gold entry (short) signal with the new model (V2.0S)! Featured market rotation: Equities for August, US Dollar for September and Bonds for October. Gold is our staple.

Model Portfolios: Gold = Sell 8/11, S&P 500= Buy 7/27, VIX= Sell 7/27

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM150811gGold: Gold rallied after the China currency devaluation, but not as convincingly as some hoped. The model is advising this is an opportunity to sell the yellow metal. Downside projections are not extreme with a retest of 104.25 likely. The model gold portfolio is short.
  • CTM150811sS&P 500 (August Featured Market): Largecaps reversed abruptly from the previous day’s gains in the wake of the currency hiccup. But, tellingly they failed to push through the lows of 7/27 and 8/07 (2065, S&P 500 basis). Equities are adjusting to the post-currency levels and we expect higher prices going forward from today’s lows. The S&P 500 portfolio is still bullish.
  • CTM150811v$VIX (S&P volatility) (August Featured Market): …And if stocks go up? That’s right, the VIX should get a good close look at the 11 level. VIX portfolio is still bearish.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the Bond trading signals. Currently available.
  • We now offer S&P 500 signals (along with the choppy $VIX). This index is a mainstay among financial participants and traders around the world. Sign-up for exclusive signals to give you the edge. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Gold still flat, Equities Challenging Support (GLD, $SPX, $VIX)

System Notes: The current model (V2.0S) is still preforming well with all signals ‘in the money.’ The S&P may pose some challenges going into the new week. Featured markets are Equities for August, US Dollar for September and Bonds for October. Gold is our staple.

Model Portfolios: Gold = Flat 7/27,  S&P 500= Buy 7/27, VIX= Sell 7/27

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM150807gGold: The yellow metal is still flat. The question is whether the market is basing (prelude to a bounce) or in a continuation formation (a pause before pushing lower). The models offer the clue that gold is oversold. So the best course is to wait for more definitive instructions. The model gold portfolio is flat.
  • CTM150807sS&P 500 (August Featured Market): Largecaps pushed lower on Friday but rallied well off the lows by the end of day. The S&P is still one of the stronger non-sector equity indexes. The DJAI is weaker but after 7 straight down days one could expect a pop in the new week. The S&P 500 found support at the 2060 level. Bullish readings should translate into some strength going into the new week. A lot of analysts (at least of TV) seem to have an air of pessimism (that’s bullish, right?). The S&P 500 portfolio is still bullish.
  • CTM150807v$VIX (S&P volatility) (August Featured Market): The VIX punched through near-term support (12) before rallying back on equity weakness. I found it interesting the VIX closed down on Friday despite the S&P closed down as well. This index is not signaling a breakdown in stocks yet. VIX portfolio is still bearish.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the Bond trading signals. Currently available.
  • We now offer S&P 500 signals (along with the choppy $VIX). This index is a mainstay among financial participants and traders around the world. Sign-up for exclusive signals to give you the edge. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Models Are Still On Track (GLD, $SPX, $VIX)

System Notes: Version 2.0S (Speed) has performed well since the inaugural 7/27 signals. I am anticipating more action going forward. I am excited about the recent changes. I will be posting gold signals (as normal) but adding a sample ‘signal of the month’ bonus. For August it will be equity related ($SPX and $VIX). The US Dollar is planned for September. After that Bonds.

Model Portfolios: Gold = Flat 7/27, August Bonus: S&P 500= Buy 7/27, VIX= Sell 7/27

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM150804gGold: Following mid-July massacre (that strangely coincided with my vacation) the GLD fund has basically flat lined. The models are close to issuing a buy but it is not quite there yet. Technically the market is very oversold (bullish). The other side of the coin is, the last 10 days look more like a continuation pattern (bearish). I am anticipating a resolution further in the week. Model Gold portfolio is flat.
  • CTM150804sS&P 500: The 7/27 buy continues to look positive overall but there has been some selling over the past couple of days. Apple woes (which also point to China) are creating angst among the analysts. The modes selling (Jul 31-Aug 4) has not indicated a downside reversal yet. Largecap indexes such as the S&P 500 are a haven in comparison to more tech-weighted fare, and thus should not get the same selling attention. The S&P 500 portfolio is still bullish.
  • CTM150804v$VIX (S&P volatility): The VIX seems to be finding support near the 12 level. However support resistance levels can have a somewhat illusionary quality in volatility index land. If the S&P pushes higher, expect this to go lower. VIX portfolio is still bearish.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the Bond trading signals. Currently available.
  • We now offer S&P 500 signals (along with the choppy $VIX!). This index is a mainstay among financial participants and traders around the world. Sign-up for exclusive signals to give you the edge. Currently available.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

What a Mess (GLD), but a Trend Change for Equities ($SPX, $VIX)

**** Important Post Vacation Note – Since my last pre-vacation note (July 16th) gold took a really big hit. The S&P was not so bad as the levels are near the last exit. I became concerned that the latest model modification (V 2.0) is not active enough to keep us out of protracted adverse moves. I am adding modifications to speed up the signals resulting in V2S (the “S” stands for speedy) nonlinear trading model to help this out. Part of this week’s comments theme regards moving the previous signals into sync with the modified model.

Model Portfolios: Gold = Flat/exit long 7/27 (formerly bullish  6/04), S&P 500= Buys 7/27 (was flat from 6/09), VIX= Sells 7/27 (finally!).

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM150727gGold: Just to state the obvious, the recent gold call was terrible. The model V2S is flat. So to transition to the new signal is simple: the gold model portfolio moves to flat. Maybe a new entry signal near the end of the week? Chinese weakness is fanning the fear that a wave of deflation awaits the world in general and commodities in specific.
  • CTM150727sS&P 500: The S&P 500 fell back last week and is now near the low end of the range. The level is lower than the exit short close from the earlier signal. Model V2S indicates little downside and the monthly chart is in agreement. So is the VIX model. The S&P 500 portfolio is now bullish.
  • CTM150727v$VIX (S&P volatility): The V2S model sold today, indicating that the pop-up is likely to not have the juice to push higher. One interesting thing is that the model is squarely in agreement (remember the inverse relationship between the VIX and the $S&P) with the S&P 500 readings. Previously they weren’t quite on the same page.

Note: Technical comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the Bond trading signals.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Really, GLD to break below 110?  (GLD)

**** Important – I will be out of the office next week, no posts July 20 – 25!

Model Portfolios: Gold = Bullish  6/04, S&P 500= flat 6/09, VIX= waiting for new entry.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM150716gGold: Gold continues to grind lower. Today’s price action dipper below the 110 level. I don’t expect it to stay this low, we should see a modest rally from this level. The gold model portfolio is long.
  • CTM150716sS&P 500: The S&P 500 is now at the top end of the range. I expect some selling to come in at these levels but there is a twist. The VIX readings are very neutral. Taken at face values, the large-cap index should give back some of the week’s gains but not retest the 2040 level. The S&P 500 portfolio is flat.
  • $VIX (S&P volatility): Pre-production VIX is flat, thus indicating limited downside for stoacks. I am waiting for a VIX signal (post 2.0).

Note: Technical comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the Bond trading signals.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Bears Running out of Steam?  (GLD)

Model Portfolios: Gold = Bullish  6/04, S&P 500= flat 6/09, VIX= waiting for new entry.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM150710gGold: Gold hit a low, intra day on July 7th (GLD basis) and has proceeded with a rally on the following days. Technically, this indicates the sellers are running out of ammo. The gold model portfolio is long (and out of the money on the current signal), but the downside momentum is moderating.
  • CTM150710sS&P 500: The largecap trend is dead (flat). Earlier, I had tenuous indications (mainly from pre-production Vix) that the next pop would be bullish. Now $VIX is flat also. The closing price on the S&P is about 5 points from our exit short level. The last 4 days have been a series of gyrations leading nowhere. The S&P 500 portfolio is flat.
  • $VIX (S&P volatility): As mentioned above the pre-production VIX model is flat (neutral) So, I am waiting for an entry signal. What is the watch phrase? Keep your powder dry.

Note: Technical comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the Bond trading signals.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”