Tag Archives: Nonlinear Trading Themes

A Subtle Shift  (SPX)

Model Gold Portfolios: Gold = Bullish  6/04, S&P 500= flat 6/09, VIX= designing model.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM150625gGold: Greek-Euro negotiation euphoria set sail on the back of the nitty gritty details of the deal, but gold continues to tick lower. Nonlinear trading analysis still has this oversold. The selling over last two trading days features decreasing downside momentum (sometimes a precursor to a reversal). Longer-term analysis is also constructive. We are in a buying zone. The model Gold portfolio is still bullish.
  • CTM150625sS&P 500: Large-caps were less sanguine about the downgrade of a positive Greek-Euro deal. The S&P sold off mildly to the middle of the recent trading range. Nonlinear trading analysis is beginning to hint (not yet confirm) that blue chips won’t have the energy to move lower than the recent bottom (2075 ,SPX basis). So the best approach is to give stocks a couple more days to bottom and see if a buy could be in the offing. The S&P 500 model is still flat.
  • $VIX (S&P volatility): The pre-production VIX trading model has also suggested limited upside (though an upside retest of 15.75 on the $VIX is not impossible). The basic move here is opposite the S&P 500 strategy.

Note: Technical comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the Bond trading signals.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Back to Buy Levels  (GLD)

Model Gold Portfolios: Gold = Bullish  6/04, S&P 500= flat 6/09, VIX= designing model.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM150623Gold: The recent breakout failed as the media touted a Monday morning turn-for the-better in Euro-Greece debt negotiations. It looked like another game of kick-the-can to me. But clearly my skepticism is in the minority as gold dropped heavily in the aftermath (Monday and Tuesday). Today’s closing level is very close to the previous buy level on the GLD (June 4th). The current theme is still bullish with an oversold feel to it. The model Gold portfolio is still bullish
  • CTM150623sS&P 500: Largecaps, laboriously, ticked higher on the Greek-feel-good news but the S&P closed about where it did last Thursday (June 18th). Maybe the good-times are still to come. The current read is still that we are range-bound.  Recent trading activity has us hovering near the top end of the range. Translation: ‘be careful about buying here.’ The S&P 500 model is still flat.
  • $VIX (S&P volatility): Largecap price compression is the opposite of healthy for volatility. The preproduction VIX trading model exited a useful short (it is now flat) but the index still moved lower. There is no indication of an upside reversal yet.

Note: Technical comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as the Bond trading signals.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

Breakout!  (GLD)

Model Gold Portfolios: Gold = Bullish  6/04, S&P 500= flat 6/09, VIX= designing model.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM150618Gold: Breakout! The previous theme of limited-selling played itself out on 6/17 as the bears tried unsuccessfully to push the yellow metal down, but instead the day ended with an upside reversal. 6/18 was an bullish breakout. The new theme should feature move active buying. Upside target: 118. The current signal looks very good. The model Gold portfolio is still bullish
  • CTM150618sS&P 500: Largecaps jumped today as well. However our system has not generated a buy yet. Our preproduction VIX signal did generate a sell (VIX tends to be inverse to the underlying market) recently so the theme for this market is a trading range with the top being 2135. The S&P 500 model is still flat. (note: the official signal for 6/9 was “exit Short” not “exit Long”, both are flat signals but we were short previous to the 9th).
  • $VIX (S&P volatility): The preproduction VIX trading model is now negative (VIX sure moves fast). So taken with the S&P flat signal, this indicates we can expect largecaps to be rangebound for now.

Note: Technical comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

Premium offers:

  • Bond Trading Signals. I am offering a similar Mummy process for Treasuries. See the “Bond Trading Signals” tab for more info. Currently available.
  • Currency Trading Signals. I am now offering a similar Mummy process for currencies. This service will involve two signal paths, one on the US dollar and the other on a user selected second currency (1+1).The fee will be the same as

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”