Tag Archives: nonlinear process

Wheat signal goes flat. (WZ16)

Oct-Nov Rotations: Core Mkt = Wheat, Featured Mkt = Crude.

Signals: WZ = Flat 11/14 (TSP= waiting), CLZ= Buy 10/28 (TSP= 46.86).

Model notes: My last post (“Sea change?”) proved prescient on the coming Trump victory as the nonlinear numbers detected a future rumble in the financial landscape (both models flipped 180 degrees). We are doing pretty well on the wheat front with our first trade scoring a small profit. Today’s signal (TSP to be determined) looks to be much better. How about crude? Our first completed trade scored just short of $2.50. But the current position is getting uncomfortably underwater.  We periodically update our models. On this round, we updated to v3.0 for the Oct-Nov cycle, however we still used the initial parameters of v2.0. CTM may update the parameters and run crude as our featured market for Dec-Jan. I was hoping to run a sample ranking (ala our premium product) during that time frame. Oh well.

Note: ALL Mummy calculations use the TSP (Theoretical Signal Price)! The TSP metric is calculated by using the ‘close’ price of the trading day FOLLOWING the signal day (giving you plenty of time to take the signal).

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • ctm161114wWheat Trading Signals (Core). Wheat broke down this week and the CTM models signaled to go flat (neutral). The TSP calculation is to follow, but initially this looks to be a good trade for us. Reset and look for another entry.
  • ctm161114cCrude (Featured). The previous completed trade was profitable but our current position is uncomfortably under water. Monday’s market action featured a reversal of sorts, the close settling well off the lows of the day. Today the market touched near the significant lows of early August. Where will we go from here? Nonlinear analysis suggests the bulls have the edge.

 

Premium Research notes:

Observation: Don’t sit around your Monday morning meetings giving each other high-fives with a two-star fund or strategy on the books. Nonlinear portfolio construction anyone? Contact me for more info. Click the ‘Ranking’ tab to find out additional info. By the way, in 2016, I am only going to take on 6 clients. CTM can help and our rates are reasonable!

We are now offering asset class ranking (or alternatively sector ranking), using our trading signal technology on a longer timeframe. This is an exciting new product as portfolio construction has one glaring, missing puzzle piece: what asset classes will continue to outperform/advance for next month? Get your independent research here, put my 25+ years of model building experience to work for you!

Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I posted the S&P 500 trading signals postmortem for the recent March-April time period (approx. as it took about a week to generate a signal at the beginning). Plus 134 Points. Great stuff!

Take a minute to check out the Forex tab on our website. I am posting the recent US Dollar May-June signals. No whipsaws and playing the surprise Brexit vote just right. Great stuff!

Take a minute to take a minute to click on our bond trading tab. Our signals took the profits in the early month while holding the long interest rates position later. It never sold rates, hinting at higher rates to come. The TBT went higher outside our test window. A nice tip-off for the future!

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in gold (and crude) trading.”

A Sea Change? (WZ16, CLZ16)

Oct-Nov Rotations: Core Mkt = Wheat, Featured Mkt = Crude.

Signals: WZ = Sell 10/28 (TSP= waiting), CLZ= Buy 10/28 (TSP= waiting).

Model notes: Do we have a sea change starting to emerge? Hillary is being investigated by the FBI (she can’t blame the Russians) and both the models flipped. We must wait for the TSP to reveal whether the previous trades are profitable. Crude looking good, wheat is more problematic.

Note: The TSP (theoretical Signal Price) metric is calculated by using the ‘close’ price of the trading day FOLLOWING the signal day (giving you plenty of time to take the signal).

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • ctm161028wWheat Trading Signals (Core). Wheat looks to be meeting resistance as it approaches the highs from Oct. 14 ($4.30-ish). The new trend line is setting up as negative. The technical question here is going to be whether or not this is going to range-bound (approx. $3.90 to $4.30). Let’s check Monday’s close to see if the previous trade was a loss (or how big).
  • ctm161028cCrude (Featured). Now our model is reversing to the long side. The previous trade is likely to be positive. Friday was the lowest close of the month, so we are not expecting much follow-through selling.

Premium Research notes:

Observation: Don’t sit around your Monday morning meetings giving each other high-fives with a two-star fund or strategy on the books. Contact me for more info. Click the ‘Ranking’ tab to find out additional info. By the way, in 2016, I am only going to take on 6 clients. CTM can help and our rates are reasonable!

We are now offering asset class ranking (or alternatively sector ranking), using our trading signal technology on a longer timeframe. This is an exciting new product as portfolio construction has one glaring, missing puzzle piece: what asset classes will continue to outperform/advance for next month? Get your independent research here, put my 25+ years of model building experience to work for you!

Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I posted the S&P 500 trading signals postmortem for the recent March-April time period (approx. as it took about a week to generate a signal at the beginning). Plus 134 Points. Great stuff!

Take a minute to check out the Forex tab on our website. I am posting the recent US Dollar May-June signals. No whipsaws and playing the surprise Brexit vote just right. Great stuff!

Take a minute to take a minute to click on our bond trading tab. Our signals took the profits in the early month while holding the long interest rates position later. It never sold rates, hinting at higher rates to come. The TBT went higher outside our test window. A nice tip-off for the future!

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in gold (and crude) trading.”

Wheat buy! (WZ16)

Oct-Nov Rotations: Core Mkt = Wheat, Featured Mkt = Crude.

Signals: WZ = Buy 10/20 (TSP= waiting), CLZ= Sell 10/03 (TSP= 49.30).

Model notes: We got the wheat signal (buy). It took us a while but the erratic daily volatility was probably a good thing to avoid. Crude reversed today. We are still out of the money, but the signal still looks promising.

Note: The TSP (theoretical Signal Price) metric is calculated by using the ‘close’ price of the trading day FOLLOWING the signal day (giving you plenty of time to take the signal).

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • ctm161020wWheat Trading Signals (Core). Wheat broke north of its range (approx. $3.90 to $4.10) but paused in the aftermath. The models are now positive. So a minor breakout and a recent uptrend. We are looking for higher ground here. We have the buy and are hoping for a good entry at tomorrow’s close.
  • ctm161020cCrude (Featured). Crude reversed to the downside, again finding resistance at the 52 area. Let’s see if we can get some follow-through selling here. The models remain short and we are looking lower.

 

Premium Research notes:

Observation: Don’t sit around your Monday morning meetings giving each other high-fives with a two-star fund or strategy on the books. Contact me for more info. Click the ‘Ranking’ tab to find out additional info. By the way, in 2016, I am only going to take on 6 clients. CTM can help and our rates are reasonable!

We are now offering asset class ranking (or alternatively sector ranking), using our trading signal technology on a longer timeframe. This is an exciting new product as portfolio construction has one glaring, missing puzzle piece: what asset classes will continue to outperform/advance for next month? Get your independent research here, put my 25+ years of model building experience to work for you!

Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I posted the S&P 500 trading signals postmortem for the recent March-April time period (approx. as it took about a week to generate a signal at the beginning). Plus 134 Points. Great stuff!

Take a minute to check out the Forex tab on our website. I am posting the recent US Dollar May-June signals. No whipsaws and playing the surprise Brexit vote just right. Great stuff!

Take a minute to take a minute to click on our bond trading tab. Our signals took the profits in the early month while holding the long interest rates position later. It never sold rates, hinting at higher rates to come. The TBT went higher outside our test window. A nice tip-off for the future!

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in gold (and crude) trading.”

Signal early but models are not changing. (CLZ)

Oct-Nov Rotations: Core Mkt = Wheat, Featured Mkt = Crude.

Signals: WZ = Flat (TSP= NA), CLZ= Sell 10/03 (TSP= 49.30).

Model notes: Our crude signal is early but the models are still bearish. Wheat is remains flat. Crazy daily volatility is dangerous. Let’s see what the models give us down the road.

Note: The TSP (theoretical Signal Price) metric is calculated by using the ‘close’ price of the trading day FOLLOWING the signal day (giving you plenty of time to take the signal).

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • ctm161014wWheat Trading Signals (Core). Wheat broke north of its range (approx. $3.90 to $4.10) but closed significantly off the daily high. There has been a lot of daily volatility here, (see Oct 5,6,12 and 13), dangerous to tread. The models are still neutral, so the trade is not there, yet. Hang back.
  • ctm161014cCrude (Featured). The crude signal appears early, but the models are not changing. We are looking for overhead resistance to hold at about the 52 level (Dec crude basis). I certainly would not try to reverse long yet. Contrary to wheat, the volatility is decreasing here.

 

Premium Research notes:

Observation: Don’t sit around your Monday morning meetings giving each other high-fives with a two-star fund or strategy on the books. Contact me for more info. Click the ‘Ranking’ tab to find out additional info. By the way, in 2016, I am only going to take on 6 clients. CTM can help and our rates are reasonable!

We are now offering asset class ranking (or alternatively sector ranking), using our trading signal technology on a longer timeframe. This is an exciting new product as portfolio construction has one glaring, missing puzzle piece: what asset classes will continue to outperform/advance for next month? Get your independent research here, put my 25+ years of model building experience to work for you!

Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I posted the S&P 500 trading signals postmortem for the recent March-April time period (approx. as it took about a week to generate a signal at the beginning). Plus 134 Points. Great stuff!

Take a minute to check out the Forex tab on our website. I am posting the recent US Dollar May-June signals. No whipsaws and playing the surprise Brexit vote just right. Great stuff!

Take a minute to take a minute to click on our bond trading tab. Our signals took the profits in the early month while holding the long interest rates position later. It never sold rates, hinting at higher rates to come. The TBT went higher outside our test window. A nice tip-off for the future!

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in gold (and crude) trading.”

We are back with a Crude sell (CLZ)

Oct-Nov Rotations: Core Mkt = Wheat, Featured Mkt = Crude.

Signals: WZ = Flat (TSP= NA), CLZ= Sell 10/03 (TSP= waiting).

Model notes: CTM is back tracking select markets. The hiatus is over and it is time to get back to it. We lead off with a crude sell. The wheat is still flat and we are waiting for a signal for the grain.

Note: The TSP (theoretical Signal Price) metric is calculated by using the ‘close’ price of the trading day FOLLOWING the signal day (giving you plenty of time to take the signal).

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • ctm161003wWheat Trading Signals (Core). Wheat is bouncing around the $3.90 to $4.10 range. The models are not giving the edge to either the bulls are the bears. We are near the low end of the monthly range but the readings are not giving us further guidance. Patience is the watch word, the Mummy stays flat.
  • ctm161003cCrude (Featured). This is an exciting opportunity for us as I used to do work for another website (EnergyTrendAlert.com, under the Joseph Grain Company) tracking energy price signals. Now I return using a different and more exciting technology. The models gave us a sell based on today’s close. Crude is at the high end of the monthly range and the models are signaling instability ahead. The Mummy sees lower prices ahead!

 

Premium Research notes:

Observation: Don’t sit around your Monday morning meetings giving each other high-fives with a two-star fund or strategy on the books. Contact me for more info. Click the ‘Ranking’ tab to find out additional info. By the way, in 2016, I am only going to take on 6 clients. CTM can help and our rates are reasonable!

We are now offering asset class ranking (or alternatively sector ranking), using our trading signal technology on a longer timeframe. This is an exciting new product as portfolio construction has one glaring, missing puzzle piece: what asset classes will continue to outperform/advance for next month? Get your independent research here, put my 25+ years of model building experience to work for you!

Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I posted the S&P 500 trading signals postmortem for the recent March-April time period (approx. as it took about a week to generate a signal at the beginning). Plus 134 Points. Great stuff!

Take a minute to check out the Forex tab on our website. I am posting the recent US Dollar May-June signals. No whipsaws and playing the surprise Brexit vote just right. Great stuff!

Take a minute to take a minute to click on our bond trading tab. Our signals took the profits in the early month while holding the long interest rates position later. It never sold rates, hinting at higher rates to come. The TBT went higher outside our test window. A nice tip-off for the future!

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in gold (and crude) trading.”