Current Model positions:
- $TNX (rates) bullish signal date = 10/02, TSP = 23.34
- $SPX bullish signal date= 10/11, TSP = 2550.93
Model notes: The models continue the to track these markets pretty well. One of the weaknesses in models can be the tendency to pick “tops” during powerful uptrends, that really are not tops. It is called being faked out. So far, the models are staying with the market movement. Bitcoin is going to be joining us soon. Very exciting stuff. Let’s look at the charts.
Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals. TSP is defined as the closing price on the day following the signal day.
Nonlinear Trading Themes:
- Bullish Yields ($TNX): Rates are starting to ramp up. The US Government shut down, though duration expectations are modest, are probably helping with this. If the shut down duration becomes more of a concern a convexity may occur. Anyway, we are tracking the trend pretty well.
- Bullish Trend Stocks ($SPX): The Jan 16 one day technical reversal had no follow-through and the nonlinear models were not fooled either. So here we go!
Premium Research notes:
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Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I posted the S&P 500 trading signals postmortem for the recent March-April time period (approx. as it took about a week to generate a signal at the beginning). Plus 134 Points. Great stuff!
Take a minute to check out the Forex tab on our website. I am posting the recent US Dollar May-June signals. No whipsaws and playing the surprise Brexit vote just right. Great stuff!
Take a minute to take a minute to click on our bond trading tab. Our signals took the profits in the early month while holding the long interest rates position later. It never sold rates, hinting at higher rates to come. The TBT went higher outside our test window. A nice tip-off for the future!
Check out the energy tab. We tracked crude during the run up to the US presidential election. There was plenty negativity with a surprise ending. See how nonlinear analysis walked us through it!
GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com © 2015-2018, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in VIX trading.”