Current Model positions:
- $TNX (rates) bullish signal date = 10/02, TSP = 23.34
- SPY bullish signal date= 10/11, TSP = 254.64
- $VIX bearish signal date= 10/11, TSP = 9.91
Model notes: The models are in well placed positions, with all trades currently “in the money” so to speak. Another thing that is going well is that the models seem to be in the right “time zone,” meaning they seem to be operating at a trading frequency suitable for the 2-week type of window I am aiming for. Also the equity signal moved to the correct side quickly (“don’t let losses run”). This is a good report.
Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals. TSP is defined as the closing price on the day following the signal day.
Nonlinear Trading Themes:
- Bullish Yields ($TNX): Rates have been hesitant on the economy, but with the recent 3rd quarter 3.1 number, they are now starting to climb with some conviction. What could the number have been without the hurricanes? Models have the trend up.
- Bullish Trend Stocks (SPY): Stocks are benefitting from the economic numbers as well. The Catalonia independence movement is likely to affect US bluechips only indirectly. The technical breakout looks good and the models are still on the buy side.
- Sell Trend Equity volatility ($VIX): Volatility Should be going down now that bluechips are trending higher, But the mercurial VIX is so low already it’s acting like something pushing on a firm spring, thus struggling to go down. For opportunist traders the best bet may be to “keep your powder dry” and wait to buy after the next bull ish signal. The models see lower values ahead for now.