Wheat on a sell (WZ16)

Oct-Nov Rotations: Core Mkt = Wheat, Featured Mkt = Crude.

Signals: WZ = Sell 11/22 (TSP= waiting), CLZ= Buy 10/28 (TSP= 46.86).

Model notes: The wheat model gave a sell. The models have been calling the grain market well this cycle. The latest trade on the crude market is looking better after going underwater for a couple of weeks, but the latest action has the trade going positive. This is very encouraging and continues to show the value of nonlinear analysis. We are back on track to feature (for the first time) some nonlinear portfolio construction samples. Exciting stuff!

Note: ALL Mummy calculations use the TSP (Theoretical Signal Price)! The TSP metric is calculated by using the ‘close’ price of the trading day FOLLOWING the signal day (giving you plenty of time to take the signal).

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • ctm161122wWheat Trading Signals (Core). Wheat popped after the models went neutral, but now the models are returning to a bearish view. $390 seems like a likely target, if not lower.
  • ctm161122cCrude (Featured). We have struggled during this signal as the crude market continued to find tough slogging during the depressing run up to the US presidential election. But post-Trump, the economic outlook has a more optimistic tint to it. With today’s close, we move into plus side of the ledger on this trade.


Premium Research notes:

Observation: Don’t sit around your Monday morning meetings giving each other high-fives with a two-star fund or strategy on the books. nonlinear portfolio construction anyone? Contact me for more info. Click the ‘Ranking’ tab to find out additional info. By the way, in 2017, I am only going to take on 4 clients. CTM can help and our rates are reasonable!

We are now offering asset class ranking (or alternatively sector ranking), using our trading signal technology on a longer timeframe. This is an exciting new product as portfolio construction has one glaring, missing puzzle piece: what asset classes will continue to outperform/advance for next month? Get your independent research here, put my 25+ years of model building experience to work for you!

Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I posted the S&P 500 trading signals postmortem for the recent March-April time period (approx. as it took about a week to generate a signal at the beginning). Plus 134 Points. Great stuff!

Take a minute to check out the Forex tab on our website. I am posting the recent US Dollar May-June signals. No whipsaws and playing the surprise Brexit vote just right. Great stuff!

Take a minute to take a minute to click on our bond trading tab. Our signals took the profits in the early month while holding the long interest rates position later. It never sold rates, hinting at higher rates to come. The TBT went higher outside our test window. A nice tip-off for the future!

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in gold (and crude) trading.”

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