Signal early but models are not changing. (CLZ)

Oct-Nov Rotations: Core Mkt = Wheat, Featured Mkt = Crude.

Signals: WZ = Flat (TSP= NA), CLZ= Sell 10/03 (TSP= 49.30).

Model notes: Our crude signal is early but the models are still bearish. Wheat is remains flat. Crazy daily volatility is dangerous. Let’s see what the models give us down the road.

Note: The TSP (theoretical Signal Price) metric is calculated by using the ‘close’ price of the trading day FOLLOWING the signal day (giving you plenty of time to take the signal).

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • ctm161014wWheat Trading Signals (Core). Wheat broke north of its range (approx. $3.90 to $4.10) but closed significantly off the daily high. There has been a lot of daily volatility here, (see Oct 5,6,12 and 13), dangerous to tread. The models are still neutral, so the trade is not there, yet. Hang back.
  • ctm161014cCrude (Featured). The crude signal appears early, but the models are not changing. We are looking for overhead resistance to hold at about the 52 level (Dec crude basis). I certainly would not try to reverse long yet. Contrary to wheat, the volatility is decreasing here.

 

Premium Research notes:

Observation: Don’t sit around your Monday morning meetings giving each other high-fives with a two-star fund or strategy on the books. Contact me for more info. Click the ‘Ranking’ tab to find out additional info. By the way, in 2016, I am only going to take on 6 clients. CTM can help and our rates are reasonable!

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Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I posted the S&P 500 trading signals postmortem for the recent March-April time period (approx. as it took about a week to generate a signal at the beginning). Plus 134 Points. Great stuff!

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Take a minute to take a minute to click on our bond trading tab. Our signals took the profits in the early month while holding the long interest rates position later. It never sold rates, hinting at higher rates to come. The TBT went higher outside our test window. A nice tip-off for the future!

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in gold (and crude) trading.”

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