Interest Rates Ticking Up (TBT)

July-Aug Rotations: Core Mkt = GLD, Featured Mkt = TBT.

Signals: GLD = Flat (TSP= N/A), TBT= Long 7/06 (TSP= 29.93).

Model notes: Our first signal in the new time period is the “Long” TBT signal (July 6), and the market is ticking up, so the model does seem to be in sync with reality. The call suggests we have a near-term bottom in interest rates. The gold market is another story. July action has not been very decisive. Gold initially moved up, then fell back a bit. The GLD is near the level it trading on June 30. The Model has kept us out of a non-trending market. Sound goods to me.

Note: The TSP (theoretical Signal Price) metric is calculated by using the ‘close’ price of the trading day FOLLOWING the signal day.

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160714gGold Trading Signals (Core). Gold is starting the month off at a slow pace. The GLD is near the trading level of June 30. We are evaluating the models looking for a signal, and a chance to enter a trade. For now, the model gold portfolio is flat.
  • CTM160714bInterest Rates (Featured). Do we have a near-term bottom in place? The models are suggesting that. The TBT is bouncing off the July 8 washout lows. The model interest rate portfolio is now long the TBT.


Premium Research notes:

Observation: Don’t sit around your Monday morning meetings giving each other high-fives with a two-star fund or strategy on the books. Contact me for more info. Click the ‘Ranking’ tab to find out more. By the way, in 2016, I am only going to take on 6 clients. CTM can help and our rates are reasonable!

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Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I posted the S&P 500 trading signals postmortem for the recent March-April time period (approx. as it took about a week to generate a signal at the beginning). Plus 134 Points. Great stuff!

Take a minute to check out the Forex tab on our website. I am posting the recent US Dollar May-June signals. No whipsaws and playing the surprise Brexit vote just right. Great stuff!

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in gold (and interest rate) trading.”

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