Monthly Archives: July 2016

Interest Rates Retreating (TBT)

July-Aug Rotations: Core Mkt = GLD, Featured Mkt = TBT.

Signals: GLD = Flat (TSP= N/A), TBT= Flat 7/19 (TSP= 31.71).

Model notes: The TBT is retreating (meaning rates are going down) in the aftermath of the July 19 sell. The TSP values of the trades this month have been great with the ‘long’ entry TSP at the second lowest close of the month so far. The July 19 exit (flat) TSP was the second highest of the month so far. Buy low, exit high. This model is in sync. What about the yellow metal? We are still waiting on a high confidence signal here. The plus side is that the market is near its start point (June 30). So in its own way the model is in sync too.

Note: The TSP (theoretical Signal Price) metric is calculated by using the ‘close’ price of the trading day FOLLOWING the signal day (giving you plenty of time to take the signal).

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160728gGold Trading Signals (Core). GLD reversed to the downside today but we have pretty solid support just 2 points lower. This doesn’t seem like a lucrative opportunity yet (either way). For now, the model gold portfolio is flat.
  • CTM160728bInterest Rates (Featured). Our July 19 exit signal caught a favorable bounce to exit at the next day’s close. Since then the TBT has been headed down. Support at 29.5. The model interest rate portfolio is flat the TBT.

 

Premium Research notes:

Observation: Don’t sit around your Monday morning meetings giving each other high-fives with a two-star fund or strategy on the books. Contact me for more info. Click the ‘Ranking’ tab to find out more. By the way, in 2016, I am only going to take on 6 clients. CTM can help and our rates are reasonable!

We are now offering asset class ranking (or alternatively sector ranking), using our trading signal technology on a longer timeframe. This is an exciting new product as portfolio construction has one glaring, missing puzzle piece: what asset classes will continue to outperform/advance for next month? Get your independent research here, put my 25+ years of model building experience to work for you!

Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I posted the S&P 500 trading signals postmortem for the recent March-April time period (approx. as it took about a week to generate a signal at the beginning). Plus 134 Points. Great stuff!

Take a minute to check out the Forex tab on our website. I am posting the recent US Dollar May-June signals. No whipsaws and playing the surprise Brexit vote just right. Great stuff!

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in gold (and interest rate) trading.”

Interest Rate model goes flat (TBT)

July-Aug Rotations: Core Mkt = GLD, Featured Mkt = TBT.

Signals: GLD = Flat (TSP= N/A), TBT= Flat (Exit long) 7/19 (TSP= waiting).

Model notes: The rate model issued a ‘flat’ signal (exit long). The market is generally higher than the 7/06 buy so this is probably going to prove to be a good trade, but we will have to wait for the TSP to get the final verdict. The gold model is not showing any action yet. On the plus side the GLD is very close to its monthly closing price on June 30. If there is no opportunity it is better to stay out before some adverse news event pops out of the closet to get your money!

Note: The TSP (theoretical Signal Price) metric is calculated by using the ‘close’ price of the trading day FOLLOWING the signal day.

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160719gGold Trading Signals (Core). Gold is flat for the month in terms of today’s close versus the close on June 30. The models don’t see that changing soon. The model gold portfolio is flat.
  • CTM160719bInterest Rates (Featured). The TBT (interest rates) bounced off the recent lows and moved the rate higher than the July 6 signal TSP. Today the model signaled an exit (go to flat). This plays into the general theme of anemic economic growth and the impression that the Yellen-led Fed is going to do everything NOT to act. Anyway the model interest rate portfolio is now flat.

 

Premium Research notes:

Observation: Don’t sit around your Monday morning meetings giving each other high-fives with a two-star fund or strategy on the books. Contact me for more info. Click the ‘Ranking’ tab to find out more. By the way, in 2016, I am only going to take on 6 clients. CTM can help and our rates are reasonable!

We are now offering asset class ranking (or alternatively sector ranking), using our trading signal technology on a longer timeframe. This is an exciting new product as portfolio construction has one glaring, missing puzzle piece: what asset classes will continue to outperform/advance for next month? Get your independent research here, put my 25+ years of model building experience to work for you!

Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I posted the S&P 500 trading signals postmortem for the recent March-April time period (approx. as it took about a week to generate a signal at the beginning). Plus 134 Points. Great stuff!

Take a minute to check out the Forex tab on our website. I am posting the recent US Dollar May-June signals. No whipsaws and playing the surprise Brexit vote just right. Great stuff!

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in gold (and interest rate) trading.”

Interest Rates Ticking Up (TBT)

July-Aug Rotations: Core Mkt = GLD, Featured Mkt = TBT.

Signals: GLD = Flat (TSP= N/A), TBT= Long 7/06 (TSP= 29.93).

Model notes: Our first signal in the new time period is the “Long” TBT signal (July 6), and the market is ticking up, so the model does seem to be in sync with reality. The call suggests we have a near-term bottom in interest rates. The gold market is another story. July action has not been very decisive. Gold initially moved up, then fell back a bit. The GLD is near the level it trading on June 30. The Model has kept us out of a non-trending market. Sound goods to me.

Note: The TSP (theoretical Signal Price) metric is calculated by using the ‘close’ price of the trading day FOLLOWING the signal day.

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160714gGold Trading Signals (Core). Gold is starting the month off at a slow pace. The GLD is near the trading level of June 30. We are evaluating the models looking for a signal, and a chance to enter a trade. For now, the model gold portfolio is flat.
  • CTM160714bInterest Rates (Featured). Do we have a near-term bottom in place? The models are suggesting that. The TBT is bouncing off the July 8 washout lows. The model interest rate portfolio is now long the TBT.

 

Premium Research notes:

Observation: Don’t sit around your Monday morning meetings giving each other high-fives with a two-star fund or strategy on the books. Contact me for more info. Click the ‘Ranking’ tab to find out more. By the way, in 2016, I am only going to take on 6 clients. CTM can help and our rates are reasonable!

We are now offering asset class ranking (or alternatively sector ranking), using our trading signal technology on a longer timeframe. This is an exciting new product as portfolio construction has one glaring, missing puzzle piece: what asset classes will continue to outperform/advance for next month? Get your independent research here, put my 25+ years of model building experience to work for you!

Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I posted the S&P 500 trading signals postmortem for the recent March-April time period (approx. as it took about a week to generate a signal at the beginning). Plus 134 Points. Great stuff!

Take a minute to check out the Forex tab on our website. I am posting the recent US Dollar May-June signals. No whipsaws and playing the surprise Brexit vote just right. Great stuff!

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in gold (and interest rate) trading.”

Gold and Interest rates rotate on (GLD, TBT)

July-Aug Rotations: Core Mkt = GLD, Featured Mkt = TBT.

Signals: GLD = Flat (TSP= N/A), TBT= Long 7/06 (TSP= waiting).

Model notes: We are moving to July and August with our old standby (Gold) and interest rates (TBT). I am very excited to proceed with interest rates with our latest model revisions as this has been the most resistant to nonlinear modeling. I suspect it involves the Government intervention (Fed) however we should have better results this time.

Note: The TSP (theoretical Signal Price) metric is calculated by using the ‘close’ price of the trading day FOLLOWING the signal day.

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160705gGold Trading Signals (Core). Gold is staring off slow as far as a signal is concerned. The post-Brexit, post-July 4 holiday trading features the yellow metal climbing but at fairly high levels. The models are conflicted; thus we have a flat signal so far on this one.
  • CTM160705bInterest Rates (Featured). The post-Brexit, post-July 4 holiday trading for interest rates managed to push our models on buy. So, to be clear, we are now expecting higher interest rates going forward. The implications for this are constructive for the economy in general. The model interest rate model is now long the TBT.

 

Premium Research notes:

Observation: Don’t sit around your Monday morning meetings giving each other high-fives with a two-star fund or strategy on the books. Contact me for more info. Click the ‘Ranking’ tab to find out more. By the way, in 2016, I am only going to take on 6 clients. CTM can help and our rates are reasonable!

We are now offering asset class ranking (or alternatively sector ranking), using our trading signal technology on a longer timeframe. This is an exciting new product as portfolio construction has one glaring, missing puzzle piece: what asset classes will continue to outperform/advance for next month? Get your independent research here, put my 25+ years of model building experience to work for you!

Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I posted the S&P 500 trading signals postmortem for the recent March-April time period (approx. as it took about a week to generate a signal at the beginning). Plus 134 Points. Great stuff!

Take a minute to check out the Forex tab on our website. I am posting the recent US Dollar May-June signals. No whipsaws and playing the surprise Brexit vote just right. Great stuff!

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in gold (and interest rate) trading.”

Wheat and the Greenback rotate off! ($usd, ^wn16)

May-June Rotations: Core Mkt = Wheat, Featured Mkt = US Dollar.

Signals: Wheat= Long 6/24 (TSP= 447), USD= Short 6/24 (TSP= 96.70).

Model notes: We are waiving farewell to wheat and the greenback. Our results were good (3 out of 4, 2 out of 2, respectively). By using nonlinear analysis, ConquerTheMummy (CTM) was not fooled by the parade of luminaries (including Obama) predicting a “remain” Brexit vote. Cutting through the misdirection! Look for our next rotations: GLD (gold, core) and TBT (interest rates, featured), in July and August trading signals. Adventures await at the CTM website.

Note: The TSP (theoretical Signal Price) metric is calculated by using the ‘close’ price of the trading day FOLLOWING the signal day.

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160630wWheat Trading Signals (Core). Our winning trades percentage was good (3 of 4). I would have liked to have caught the mid-June short a little sooner and the end of month buy a little later, but CTM models had the flow of the market. What is next? If the dollar continues to drop, that should be a plus for grains. Wheat watchers need to watch the deflationary front though. If an eventual wave of deflation goes through, that will be tough for commodities in general. I hope you enjoyed the two-month wheat tour, Look for gold next!
  • CTM160630uUS Dollar Signals (Featured). CTM models played the Brexit tango well, avoiding getting whipsawed in the pre-vote luminary enhanced swirl, then getting setup for a near perfect post-vote position reversal. The trading chestnut, “listening to politicians can get you killed.” The future for the dollar? The models are still short, bears have the advantage, but they need to be alert that the next major developed county to raise rates is likely to be the USA. The next featured market is going to be the TBT (interest rates) so if you follow this website over the next two months, we will help you see that issue coming, hopefully just before it happens!

 

Premium Research notes:

Observation: Don’t sit around your Monday morning meetings giving each other high-fives with a two-star fund or strategy on the books. CTM can help and our rates are reasonable!

We are now offering asset class ranking (or alternatively sector ranking), using our nonlinear trading signal technology on a longer timeframe. This is an exciting new product as portfolio construction often has one glaring missing puzzle piece: what asset classes will continue to outperform/advance for next month? Get your independent research here! Contact me for more info. Click the ‘Ranking’ tab to find out more. By the way, in 2016, I am only going to take on 6 clients.

Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I posted the S&P 500 trading signals postmortem for the recent March-April time period (approx. as it took about a week to generate a signal at the beginning). Plus 134 Points. Great stuff!

Take a minute to check out the Forex tab on our website. I am posting the recent US Dollar May-June signals. No whipsaws and playing the surprise Brexit vote just right. Great stuff!

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in gold (and wheat) trading.”