May-June Rotations: Core Mkt = Wheat, Featured Mkt = US Dollar
Signals: Wheat= Long 5/19 (TSP 467.25), USD= Long 5/11 (TSP 94.13)
Model notes: On the dollar, we were not able to sell near the 96 highs a couple of weeks ago, but a second chance is in the offing with this week’s reversal. The models are still positive and the possibility of a retest or the approx. 96 level is definitely on the table. Also we are now back in-the-money! On the wheat side, the grain has punched out through the recent trading range (455-485). So the models have the trend as ‘up’ and this is what the grain market has given us. Both models are still in sync with their respective markets.
Note: The TSP (theoretical Signal Price) metric is calculated by using the ‘close’ price of the trading day FOLLOWING the signal day.
Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals.
Nonlinear Trading Themes:
- Wheat Trading Signals (Core). Wheat punched out of the 455-485 trading range to the upside (which was good for the current buy signal). Friday’s reversal, while hefty, stopped short of dropping back in the previous trading range. It is not uncommon for breakouts to feature a brief retest of the top of the previous range. Models are still a go, and the model wheat portfolio is still long.
- US Dollar Signals (Featured). We missed the opportunity to sell out near the previous 96 highs but the greenback bulls were able to put together a rally by the end of the week. The Friday price is north of the current signal TSP (good) and the next is right at 96 (good again). Recently the models reiterated their support for the greenback. The model dollar portfolio is long.
Premium Research notes:
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Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I posted the S&P 500 trading signals postmortem for the recent March-April time period (approx. as it took about a week to generate a signal at the beginning). Plus 134 Points. Great stuff!
GH Garrett – Chief market analyst for ConquertheMummy.com © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in gold (and wheat) trading.”