Model Notes: We lead with the December feature market: The Brazilian real. The models pick up a buy the last day of November on the currency of the largest economy in South America. Saying ‘hello’ to the December feature means saying ‘goodbye’ to November’s spotlight, the VIX. I will be posting a post-mortem on this later in the month. The model had one narrowly positive trade for the time period despite the fact it had to contend with the sneak Paris terror attack, which did not make things easier. Finally, we have gold. The yellow metal is finding it difficult to pick a bottom. Maybe by the end of the week.
Featured market rotation: VIX for November (goodbye). Brazilian real for December (hello). S&P for January. Gold is currently non-rotational.
Model Portfolio Signals: (Gold) Flat Signal= 11/03 (TSP=105.97), (VIX) Buy=11/25 (TSP=15.12). The Brazilian real long signal 11/30 (TSP=waiting).
Note: TSP is calculated by using the closing price of the trading day after the signal day.
Nonlinear Trading Themes:
- Gold: Last week’s comments centered on the yellow metal trying to base at 102. Today’s close (GLD basis) was 101.92, so we are still in the area. The models are setting up for a possible entry later in the week. But we are not there yet. The model gold portfolio signal is still flat.
- VIX (Nov. Featured Market): The ‘sell’ TSP was higher than the following ‘buy’ TSP so we have a narrow positive trade. The last trading day of the month was higher than the buying TSP so there was some useful information there. The model VIX portfolio ends the month long.
- Brazilian Real (Dec. Featured Market): We start the month long with a ‘buy’ on the last day of the November. The general recent action on the currency has been range-bound, The models see more strength ahead. The B-real model is now long.
Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.
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- The post-mortem for the US dollar has been posted. To view it select the “Forex” tab on ConquerTheMummy.com.
GH Garrett – Veteran Market Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”