Exit Long ($USD)

Model Notes: We issued an ‘exit long’ signal today for the US dollar (featured market for Sept). I will shortly publish a post-mortem under the “Forex Trading” tab, but the early look is good for the models as ‘buy’ signal between two higher ‘exit’ signals. So it is bonds for October!

Featured market rotation: US Dollar for September (nearing the end) and Bonds for October. Japanese yen for November. Brazilian real for December. Gold is currently non-rotational.

Model Portfolio Signals: (Gold) Buy = 9/08 (TSP=106.13), (USD) Buy = 9/17 (TSP=95.00), (Bonds/TLO) Sell =9/24 (TSP= 70.50)

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM150929gGold: Today was disappointing as GLD dropped further. Models are indicating oversold conditions and the GLD is conveniently near the 107 support level. I expect a bump up going into the weekend. The model gold portfolio is still long.
  • CTM150929uUS Dollar (Sept Featured Market): The buy level (TSP) was good but the greenback is running into overhead resistance now. Model indications are waning. We pull the plug today. The model dollar portfolio is now flat.
  • CTM150929bBonds (Oct Featured Market): The sell signal on 9/24 and the TSP of 70.50 (ouch) is still intact. Tuesday’s action is not really a breakout, I am expecting weakness ahead. Yellan has laid the groundwork for the sacrificial tightening before year’s end. The dollar looks to be topping as well. Finally, stocks are near the bottom of the recent trading range (implying a bounce). The model bond portfolio remains bearish.

Note: Technical analysis comments are based on interpretations of non-linear trading models, combined with chart price action.

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GH Garrett – Veteran Market Watcher for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015, “Nonlinear signals that matter in gold trading.”

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