Model Gold Portfolio: Short, (signal=100114)
Technical Read: Gold fell hard in Friday’s trading as longs didn’t want to wait for Monday to liquidate positions. The move established a breakdown from the previous trading range and undoubtable triggered many mechanical trend following systems. Our last two signals have the advantage of giving traders time to re-position before the trend change. What now? This crack is sufficient to send reverberations through the system (margin calls feeding the selling), so we should see more selling ahead. We are chasing the mummy.
- Catalyst 1 – The leap in the dollar broke the back of the bulls and is going to make it hard for them to regroup going forward. Another issue: Currency trends have a reputation for lasting. This (again) is bearish for the yellow metal.
- Catalyst 2 – Stocks (as measured by the S&P 500) did not help gold on Friday either. The explosive rally largely erased Wednesday’s significant selloff. Despite the recent equity gyrations, the Mummy considers the US equity market as neutral. This is bearish for gold now but will probably not be sustained.
- US Government Bond research. I am offering a similar Mummy process for bonds. Treasuries halted their advance over the last couple of days. Our signal on this is neutral, so the Mummy is on the hunt for a new signal. A valuable signal for some institution. See the “Bond” tab for more info.
GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy.com