090914 – Sept 4 low did not hold

Model Portfolio: Short Signal (7/31)

CTM140909

Technical Read: As predicted on the weekend comments, the Sept 4 closing low did not hold. Lower lows spell the classical downtrend. I continue to seek an exit and discern the level that the current trend becomes overextended. I lament that my readings are not giving my two round trips per month, but I am glad to be on the right (short in this case) side of the market.  I guess in the end, a trader must take whatever situation the market gives.

Backdrop:

  • The quick headline news today was the new product announcements from Apple. The once maverick computer maker is beefing up their cell phone line and introducing a new personal electronic device: a watch. So what does this have to do with gold? The day started with expectations but the S&P 500 (and Apple stock) closed lower by the end the day. I think US stocks are going to be in a haze (largely non-trending) for a while. Neutral for gold.
  • Japan’s Cabinet Office revised the countries 2nd quarter GDP figure to -1.8 quarterly. This simply adds to the possible future theme of global deflation. Bearish for gold.
  • Long-term US Government bonds (as tracked by the TLO ETF) ticked lower today. Rates are now expected to be firmer by Conquer The Mummy website. This is bearish for gold.

GH Garrett – Veteran Commodity Watcher for Conquer the Mummy.com

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