Gold signal goes flat (GLD)

July-Aug Rotations: Core Mkt = GLD, Featured Mkt = TBT.

Signals: GLD = Flat 8/15 (TSP= waiting), TBT= Long 8/09 (TSP= 30.73).

Model notes: The gold model previous buy signal was a little early, but the TSP after the drop bailed it out. The models are now going flat. This is not a bad idea. If you don’t quite feel with the market, step back and have another go later. The interest rate model buy has been rewarded by a TBT that has moved up. This model looks to be in sync with the market.

Note: The TSP (theoretical Signal Price) metric is calculated by using the ‘close’ price of the trading day FOLLOWING the signal day (giving you plenty of time to take the signal).

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160815gGold Trading Signals (Core). Gold has featured a lot of back and forth motion during this test period. We are about half way in the trading range (125-130, GLD basis) and this is probably a good place to get out. We may even make a profit (TSP to TSP). Taking a position at one of the two extremes in the range may make a lot more sense. Gold model is flat.
  • CTM160815bInterest Rates (Featured). Our interest rate model has done a little better in playing the range-bound movements. One interesting point, the model refuses to short rates. It senses higher rates are ahead!

 

Premium Research notes:

Observation: Don’t sit around your Monday morning meetings giving each other high-fives with a two-star fund or strategy on the books. Contact me for more info. Click the ‘Ranking’ tab to find out additional info. By the way, in 2016, I am only going to take on 6 clients. CTM can help and our rates are reasonable!

We are now offering asset class ranking (or alternatively sector ranking), using our trading signal technology on a longer timeframe. This is an exciting new product as portfolio construction has one glaring, missing puzzle piece: what asset classes will continue to outperform/advance for next month? Get your independent research here, put my 25+ years of model building experience to work for you!

Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I posted the S&P 500 trading signals postmortem for the recent March-April time period (approx. as it took about a week to generate a signal at the beginning). Plus 134 Points. Great stuff!

Take a minute to check out the Forex tab on our website. I am posting the recent US Dollar May-June signals. No whipsaws and playing the surprise Brexit vote just right. Great stuff!

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in gold (and interest rate) trading.”

Interest rates to bottom! (TBT)

July-Aug Rotations: Core Mkt = GLD, Featured Mkt= TBT

Signals: GLD = Buy 8/4 (TSP= 127.55), TBT= Long 8/09 (TSP= waiting).

Model notes: The gold signal featured a next day jarring drop but the actual trade would have been at the next day’s close (TSP), which means after the one-day drop. So the model signal was actually positive at the close of today! The interest rate model buys today (TSP pending). So far (and I never get tired of saying this) both models are still in sync with their respective markets!

Note: The TSP (theoretical Signal Price) metric is calculated by using the ‘close’ price of the trading day FOLLOWING the signal day (giving you plenty of time to take the signal).

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160809gGold Trading Signals (Core). Gold model issued a buy, the drop proved to be a confidence shaker, but prices bounced above the signal TSP (TSP= 127.55). So all looks good. We expect support at the 127 level. Gold model is positive.
  • CTM160809bInterest Rates (Featured). The rate model buys on today’s weakness (hoping for a good TSP tomorrow). Look for support for the TBT near 30.20. If you take the current signal with the previous signal you get a theme that interest rates are on a gentle up-trend. A gentle up move in rates should not be a drag on stocks.

 

Premium Research notes:

Observation: Don’t sit around your Monday morning meetings giving each other high-fives with a two-star fund or strategy on the books. Contact me for more info. Click the ‘Ranking’ tab to find out additional info. By the way, in 2016, I am only going to take on 6 clients. CTM can help and our rates are reasonable!

We are now offering asset class ranking (or alternatively sector ranking), using our trading signal technology on a longer timeframe. This is an exciting new product as portfolio construction has one glaring, missing puzzle piece: what asset classes will continue to outperform/advance for next month? Get your independent research here, put my 25+ years of model building experience to work for you!

Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I posted the S&P 500 trading signals postmortem for the recent March-April time period (approx. as it took about a week to generate a signal at the beginning). Plus 134 Points. Great stuff!

Take a minute to check out the Forex tab on our website. I am posting the recent US Dollar May-June signals. No whipsaws and playing the surprise Brexit vote just right. Great stuff!

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in gold (and interest rate) trading.”

Finally! (GLD)

July-Aug Rotations: Core Mkt = GLD, Featured Mkt = TBT.

Signals: GLD = Buy 8/4 (TSP= N/A), TBT= Flat 7/19 (TSP= 31.71).

Model notes: Finally a move, the GLD model issued a buy, it is off the lows of late July but that doesn’t mean it can’t be a profitable trade. The model has been stand offish until now. I am relieved for some action. The interest rate model? One good (profitable) trade and some back-and-forth after that We seem ok here.

Note: The TSP (theoretical Signal Price) metric is calculated by using the ‘close’ price of the trading day FOLLOWING the signal day (giving you plenty of time to take the signal).

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160804gGold Trading Signals (Core). Gold model issues a buy today (TSP for tomorrow). The obvious inference is the 131 (GLD basis) is not going to contain the prices further. Gold portfolio to go long at tomorrow’s close.
  • CTM160804bInterest Rates (Featured). The model is flat as of July 19 (exit executed on the following close). Since then it is mainly back-and-forth motion. Flat is the word.

 

Premium Research notes:

Observation: Don’t sit around your Monday morning meetings giving each other high-fives with a two-star fund or strategy on the books. Contact me for more info. Click the ‘Ranking’ tab to find out additional info. By the way, in 2016, I am only going to take on 6 clients. CTM can help and our rates are reasonable!

We are now offering asset class ranking (or alternatively sector ranking), using our trading signal technology on a longer timeframe. This is an exciting new product as portfolio construction has one glaring, missing puzzle piece: what asset classes will continue to outperform/advance for next month? Get your independent research here, put my 25+ years of model building experience to work for you!

Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I posted the S&P 500 trading signals postmortem for the recent March-April time period (approx. as it took about a week to generate a signal at the beginning). Plus 134 Points. Great stuff!

Take a minute to check out the Forex tab on our website. I am posting the recent US Dollar May-June signals. No whipsaws and playing the surprise Brexit vote just right. Great stuff!

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in gold (and interest rate) trading.”

Interest Rates Retreating (TBT)

July-Aug Rotations: Core Mkt = GLD, Featured Mkt = TBT.

Signals: GLD = Flat (TSP= N/A), TBT= Flat 7/19 (TSP= 31.71).

Model notes: The TBT is retreating (meaning rates are going down) in the aftermath of the July 19 sell. The TSP values of the trades this month have been great with the ‘long’ entry TSP at the second lowest close of the month so far. The July 19 exit (flat) TSP was the second highest of the month so far. Buy low, exit high. This model is in sync. What about the yellow metal? We are still waiting on a high confidence signal here. The plus side is that the market is near its start point (June 30). So in its own way the model is in sync too.

Note: The TSP (theoretical Signal Price) metric is calculated by using the ‘close’ price of the trading day FOLLOWING the signal day (giving you plenty of time to take the signal).

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160728gGold Trading Signals (Core). GLD reversed to the downside today but we have pretty solid support just 2 points lower. This doesn’t seem like a lucrative opportunity yet (either way). For now, the model gold portfolio is flat.
  • CTM160728bInterest Rates (Featured). Our July 19 exit signal caught a favorable bounce to exit at the next day’s close. Since then the TBT has been headed down. Support at 29.5. The model interest rate portfolio is flat the TBT.

 

Premium Research notes:

Observation: Don’t sit around your Monday morning meetings giving each other high-fives with a two-star fund or strategy on the books. Contact me for more info. Click the ‘Ranking’ tab to find out more. By the way, in 2016, I am only going to take on 6 clients. CTM can help and our rates are reasonable!

We are now offering asset class ranking (or alternatively sector ranking), using our trading signal technology on a longer timeframe. This is an exciting new product as portfolio construction has one glaring, missing puzzle piece: what asset classes will continue to outperform/advance for next month? Get your independent research here, put my 25+ years of model building experience to work for you!

Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I posted the S&P 500 trading signals postmortem for the recent March-April time period (approx. as it took about a week to generate a signal at the beginning). Plus 134 Points. Great stuff!

Take a minute to check out the Forex tab on our website. I am posting the recent US Dollar May-June signals. No whipsaws and playing the surprise Brexit vote just right. Great stuff!

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in gold (and interest rate) trading.”

Interest Rate model goes flat (TBT)

July-Aug Rotations: Core Mkt = GLD, Featured Mkt = TBT.

Signals: GLD = Flat (TSP= N/A), TBT= Flat (Exit long) 7/19 (TSP= waiting).

Model notes: The rate model issued a ‘flat’ signal (exit long). The market is generally higher than the 7/06 buy so this is probably going to prove to be a good trade, but we will have to wait for the TSP to get the final verdict. The gold model is not showing any action yet. On the plus side the GLD is very close to its monthly closing price on June 30. If there is no opportunity it is better to stay out before some adverse news event pops out of the closet to get your money!

Note: The TSP (theoretical Signal Price) metric is calculated by using the ‘close’ price of the trading day FOLLOWING the signal day.

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160719gGold Trading Signals (Core). Gold is flat for the month in terms of today’s close versus the close on June 30. The models don’t see that changing soon. The model gold portfolio is flat.
  • CTM160719bInterest Rates (Featured). The TBT (interest rates) bounced off the recent lows and moved the rate higher than the July 6 signal TSP. Today the model signaled an exit (go to flat). This plays into the general theme of anemic economic growth and the impression that the Yellen-led Fed is going to do everything NOT to act. Anyway the model interest rate portfolio is now flat.

 

Premium Research notes:

Observation: Don’t sit around your Monday morning meetings giving each other high-fives with a two-star fund or strategy on the books. Contact me for more info. Click the ‘Ranking’ tab to find out more. By the way, in 2016, I am only going to take on 6 clients. CTM can help and our rates are reasonable!

We are now offering asset class ranking (or alternatively sector ranking), using our trading signal technology on a longer timeframe. This is an exciting new product as portfolio construction has one glaring, missing puzzle piece: what asset classes will continue to outperform/advance for next month? Get your independent research here, put my 25+ years of model building experience to work for you!

Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I posted the S&P 500 trading signals postmortem for the recent March-April time period (approx. as it took about a week to generate a signal at the beginning). Plus 134 Points. Great stuff!

Take a minute to check out the Forex tab on our website. I am posting the recent US Dollar May-June signals. No whipsaws and playing the surprise Brexit vote just right. Great stuff!

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in gold (and interest rate) trading.”

Interest Rates Ticking Up (TBT)

July-Aug Rotations: Core Mkt = GLD, Featured Mkt = TBT.

Signals: GLD = Flat (TSP= N/A), TBT= Long 7/06 (TSP= 29.93).

Model notes: Our first signal in the new time period is the “Long” TBT signal (July 6), and the market is ticking up, so the model does seem to be in sync with reality. The call suggests we have a near-term bottom in interest rates. The gold market is another story. July action has not been very decisive. Gold initially moved up, then fell back a bit. The GLD is near the level it trading on June 30. The Model has kept us out of a non-trending market. Sound goods to me.

Note: The TSP (theoretical Signal Price) metric is calculated by using the ‘close’ price of the trading day FOLLOWING the signal day.

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160714gGold Trading Signals (Core). Gold is starting the month off at a slow pace. The GLD is near the trading level of June 30. We are evaluating the models looking for a signal, and a chance to enter a trade. For now, the model gold portfolio is flat.
  • CTM160714bInterest Rates (Featured). Do we have a near-term bottom in place? The models are suggesting that. The TBT is bouncing off the July 8 washout lows. The model interest rate portfolio is now long the TBT.

 

Premium Research notes:

Observation: Don’t sit around your Monday morning meetings giving each other high-fives with a two-star fund or strategy on the books. Contact me for more info. Click the ‘Ranking’ tab to find out more. By the way, in 2016, I am only going to take on 6 clients. CTM can help and our rates are reasonable!

We are now offering asset class ranking (or alternatively sector ranking), using our trading signal technology on a longer timeframe. This is an exciting new product as portfolio construction has one glaring, missing puzzle piece: what asset classes will continue to outperform/advance for next month? Get your independent research here, put my 25+ years of model building experience to work for you!

Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I posted the S&P 500 trading signals postmortem for the recent March-April time period (approx. as it took about a week to generate a signal at the beginning). Plus 134 Points. Great stuff!

Take a minute to check out the Forex tab on our website. I am posting the recent US Dollar May-June signals. No whipsaws and playing the surprise Brexit vote just right. Great stuff!

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in gold (and interest rate) trading.”

Gold and Interest rates rotate on (GLD, TBT)

July-Aug Rotations: Core Mkt = GLD, Featured Mkt = TBT.

Signals: GLD = Flat (TSP= N/A), TBT= Long 7/06 (TSP= waiting).

Model notes: We are moving to July and August with our old standby (Gold) and interest rates (TBT). I am very excited to proceed with interest rates with our latest model revisions as this has been the most resistant to nonlinear modeling. I suspect it involves the Government intervention (Fed) however we should have better results this time.

Note: The TSP (theoretical Signal Price) metric is calculated by using the ‘close’ price of the trading day FOLLOWING the signal day.

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160705gGold Trading Signals (Core). Gold is staring off slow as far as a signal is concerned. The post-Brexit, post-July 4 holiday trading features the yellow metal climbing but at fairly high levels. The models are conflicted; thus we have a flat signal so far on this one.
  • CTM160705bInterest Rates (Featured). The post-Brexit, post-July 4 holiday trading for interest rates managed to push our models on buy. So, to be clear, we are now expecting higher interest rates going forward. The implications for this are constructive for the economy in general. The model interest rate model is now long the TBT.

 

Premium Research notes:

Observation: Don’t sit around your Monday morning meetings giving each other high-fives with a two-star fund or strategy on the books. Contact me for more info. Click the ‘Ranking’ tab to find out more. By the way, in 2016, I am only going to take on 6 clients. CTM can help and our rates are reasonable!

We are now offering asset class ranking (or alternatively sector ranking), using our trading signal technology on a longer timeframe. This is an exciting new product as portfolio construction has one glaring, missing puzzle piece: what asset classes will continue to outperform/advance for next month? Get your independent research here, put my 25+ years of model building experience to work for you!

Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I posted the S&P 500 trading signals postmortem for the recent March-April time period (approx. as it took about a week to generate a signal at the beginning). Plus 134 Points. Great stuff!

Take a minute to check out the Forex tab on our website. I am posting the recent US Dollar May-June signals. No whipsaws and playing the surprise Brexit vote just right. Great stuff!

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in gold (and interest rate) trading.”

Wheat and the Greenback rotate off! ($usd, ^wn16)

May-June Rotations: Core Mkt = Wheat, Featured Mkt = US Dollar.

Signals: Wheat= Long 6/24 (TSP= 447), USD= Short 6/24 (TSP= 96.70).

Model notes: We are waiving farewell to wheat and the greenback. Our results were good (3 out of 4, 2 out of 2, respectively). By using nonlinear analysis, ConquerTheMummy (CTM) was not fooled by the parade of luminaries (including Obama) predicting a “remain” Brexit vote. Cutting through the misdirection! Look for our next rotations: GLD (gold, core) and TBT (interest rates, featured), in July and August trading signals. Adventures await at the CTM website.

Note: The TSP (theoretical Signal Price) metric is calculated by using the ‘close’ price of the trading day FOLLOWING the signal day.

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160630wWheat Trading Signals (Core). Our winning trades percentage was good (3 of 4). I would have liked to have caught the mid-June short a little sooner and the end of month buy a little later, but CTM models had the flow of the market. What is next? If the dollar continues to drop, that should be a plus for grains. Wheat watchers need to watch the deflationary front though. If an eventual wave of deflation goes through, that will be tough for commodities in general. I hope you enjoyed the two-month wheat tour, Look for gold next!
  • CTM160630uUS Dollar Signals (Featured). CTM models played the Brexit tango well, avoiding getting whipsawed in the pre-vote luminary enhanced swirl, then getting setup for a near perfect post-vote position reversal. The trading chestnut, “listening to politicians can get you killed.” The future for the dollar? The models are still short, bears have the advantage, but they need to be alert that the next major developed county to raise rates is likely to be the USA. The next featured market is going to be the TBT (interest rates) so if you follow this website over the next two months, we will help you see that issue coming, hopefully just before it happens!

 

Premium Research notes:

Observation: Don’t sit around your Monday morning meetings giving each other high-fives with a two-star fund or strategy on the books. CTM can help and our rates are reasonable!

We are now offering asset class ranking (or alternatively sector ranking), using our nonlinear trading signal technology on a longer timeframe. This is an exciting new product as portfolio construction often has one glaring missing puzzle piece: what asset classes will continue to outperform/advance for next month? Get your independent research here! Contact me for more info. Click the ‘Ranking’ tab to find out more. By the way, in 2016, I am only going to take on 6 clients.

Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I posted the S&P 500 trading signals postmortem for the recent March-April time period (approx. as it took about a week to generate a signal at the beginning). Plus 134 Points. Great stuff!

Take a minute to check out the Forex tab on our website. I am posting the recent US Dollar May-June signals. No whipsaws and playing the surprise Brexit vote just right. Great stuff!

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in gold (and wheat) trading.”

Brexit rocks the markets but not CTM! ($usd)

May-June Rotations: Core Mkt = Wheat, Featured Mkt = US Dollar.

Signals: Wheat= Long 6/24 (TSP= waiting), USD= Short 6/24 (TSP= waiting).

Model notes: Wow. The British choose freedom over (promised) prosperity. ConquerTheMummy (CTM) nonlinear analysis was not fooled by the parade of luminaries (including Obama) predicting a “remain” vote. Good Job. What now? Both the dollar and wheat models have reversed based on today’s movements. I believe that nonlinear analysis may well shed light on many things to come. It is a great time to be following the CTM website.

Note: The TSP (theoretical Signal Price) metric is calculated by using the ‘close’ price of the trading day FOLLOWING the signal day.

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160624wWheat Trading Signals (Core). Brexit was negative on wheat, which was okay as we were short. The grain picked up support near the 455 level (which we have talked about before). The nonlinear models indicate we are now in a buy mode. The model wheat portfolio is now long. Note: Our core market for July-August will be gold.
  • CTM160624uUS Dollar Signals (Featured). The greenback (post Brexit) pop pushed our long position back into the money and the nonlinear models then reversed to short. The model dollar model is now bearish. Please note: The next featured market for July-August is going to be either US Bonds or interest rates.

 

Premium Research notes:

Observation: on one of my recent sales phone calls to an analyst, I was told it was very hard to get independent research in the firm. it amazed me as that fund family featured a 2-star fund (Morningstar, 3yr window) in its offering. Using independent research helps to combat institutional bias. CTM rates on our asset class ranking are very reasonable as well. If you are struggling with returns, please contact me, let’s see if I can help. Don’t sit around your Monday meetings giving each other high-fives with a two-star fund on the books.

We are now offering asset class ranking (or alternatively sector ranking), using our trading signal technology on a longer timeframe. This is an exciting new product as portfolio construction has one glaring missing puzzle piece: what asset classes will continue to advance for next month? We can help with that. Get your independent research here! By the way, in 2016, I am only going to take on 6 clients. Contact me for more info. Click the ‘Ranking’ tab to find out more.

Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I posted the S&P 500 trading signals postmortem for the recent March-April time period (approx. as it took about a week to generate a signal at the beginning). Plus 134 Points. Great stuff!

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in gold (and wheat) trading.”

Dollar struggles, but support is near. ($usd)

May-June Rotations: Core Mkt = Wheat, Featured Mkt = US Dollar

Signals: Wheat= Short 6/14 (TSP 478.25), USD= Long 5/11 (TSP 94.13)

 

Model notes: The latter half of June has been rough on the models. Wheat is (so far) 3 for 3 but I lost a fair amount of ground in the recent selloff. But the models do seem in sync. The dollar model signals have suffered more as we only have one trade, most of the time has been spent in the money but we are now dipping our toe in the red ink of loss-land. But we could have a bounce. Is the greenback model in sync? This one may go down to the line (June 30).

Note: The TSP (theoretical Signal Price) metric is calculated by using the ‘close’ price of the trading day FOLLOWING the signal day.

Note: The following comments are based on using technical analysis to ‘flesh out’ our nonlinear trading signals.

Nonlinear Trading Themes:

  • CTM160620wWheat Trading Signals (Core). Wheat has moved dropped, real support is near the 455 level. The brief pop on June 17 did not get any follow-through. Wheat model is negative and the bears seem to have the edge.
  • CTM160620uUS Dollar Signals (Featured). The greenback is struggling. Each day seems to push it a little lower (we recently anyway) but the models are positive and we have real trading support at the 93.50 level. So the bet is bullish. The model dollar portfolio is positive.

 

Premium Research notes:

We are now offering asset class ranking (or alternatively sector ranking), using our trading signal technology on a longer timeframe. This is an exciting new product as portfolio construction has one glaring missing puzzle piece: what asset classes will continue to advance for next month? We can help with that. Get your independent research here! By the way, in 2016, I am only going to take on 6 clients. Contact me for more info. Click the ‘Ranking’ tab to find out more.

Take a minute to peruse the US Equities tab. I posted the S&P 500 trading signals postmortem for the recent March-April time period (approx. as it took about a week to generate a signal at the beginning). Plus 134 Points. Great stuff!

GH Garrett – Chief Market Analyst for ConquertheMummy.com  © 2015-2016, “Nonlinear trading signals that matter in gold (and wheat)  trading.”